There is always the desire to look into the future and to see what is going to happen. If you knew stocks were going to plunge next Tuesday, you would sell on Monday. The farther out the “prediction”, the slower the return, if it comes at all and therefore the greater the risk.
So, when we look at 2015 and beyond many people think that it is too far off and you can’t have reliable predictions anyway. While that sounds good, there are many who predict and invest a lot farther out than that. Companies like Exxon/Mobile and Georgia Pacific both have 100+ year plans. That is what I call planning and predicting into the future?
But what about right here, can we accurately predict the future for construction? Dale Atkins with The Marketing Edge who has spoken several times at our Home Builder’s Association membership meeting has said that there is a correlation between collectable rent and home construction.
When rent goes up there is a greater interest to buy or build a new home. Prices of homes tend to go up because of the increase in demand. There will always be fluctuations, but there are also trends. And when you start looking for trends based on facts your ability to predict will greatly increase.
The hard part is not so much predicting the trend, as understanding what does that trend mean for me and my business. How do I use this information to position my business for growth and greater profitability when it comes? What threats will there be to my business that I need to mitigate before the storm hits?
About two years ago it was said at one of our meetings that the average age for a licensed plumber and electrician in our county was in the low 60’s. Although I haven’t been able to verify it, it is worth thinking about. So, what will be the net effect in the not too distant future? If you need an electrician or plumber it just might cost you a whole lot more than it does now. When finding a good plumber becomes difficult, it may have an impact on your schedule and the amount of work you can do.
According to the National Association of Home Builders in a recent article they are already seeing some difficulty throughout the country in finding roofers, framing carpenters and general carpenters. If the country sees an increase in the demand for construction, these trends will affect your business, the question is how? And is there anything you can do in preparation for this trend?
If you see a trend, that is great, but think about the impact. What if you and your competitor see a trend, how will that affect your business? What if they see a trend and you don’t?
As I am writing this I got an email from David Crowe of the NAHB Education department, talk about timing. They are promoting a “NAHB Fall Construction Forecasting Webinar” with special guest, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, is on October 30th. You might want to check it out.
Taking some time to look at the future horizons, to set better goals and to make better plans is always a good investment of your time. So realize that you can predict the future or at least see the horizon better. The important thing is to see the how trends will impact your business and find ways to take advantage of the opportunities and minimize the threats.
When you properly plan into the future, you gain better control of your present.
Crossroads Consultants can help you to plan into the future while gaining better control for today.